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Tropical Storm CINDY


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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005
 
THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A FEW SPOT SURFACE WIND
ESTIMATES AROUND 64 KT.  HOWEVER...THE CREW OF THE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT THESE WIND SPEEDS WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH.  THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR-OBSERVED STRUCTURE...CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE CENTER CROSSES
INTO THE MARSHY DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD AND IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD TO AGREE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

NO CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED.
PREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES ARE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A
LITTLE STRONGER STORM. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 28.2N  90.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.7N  89.8W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 33.2N  86.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 34.7N  84.1W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 37.0N  78.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 39.5N  71.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
 
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