Tropical Depression THREE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TODAY'S DILEMMA IS THE APPARENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE
NORTH OF YUCATAN...AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WHERE THE PRESSURES ARE LOWEST. 
AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER IS
STILL IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING...AND CONTINUE TO ISSUE
ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THIS NORTHWARD
REPOSITIONING FORCES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST...AND MOVES UP THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER AT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS ALSO NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.

GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...I HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  MOREOVER...THE
MORE NORTHWARD REFORMATION HAS PUT THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL
AND SHIPS OUTPUT.

THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 22.8N  89.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 24.2N  90.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N  91.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N  91.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 30.2N  92.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/1800Z 35.0N  87.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
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