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Tropical Storm BRET


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005
 
BRET MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD A FAIRLY TIGHT
CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS DEPICTED IN SSMI
IMAGERY NEAR 03Z...AND SUFFICIENT FOR 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE SINCE WARMED A
BIT NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...BUT LACKING ANY EVIDENCE
TO THE CONTRARY...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ONLY A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INDEED...BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THE 03Z SSMI OVERPASS AND GOES SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
BRET IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/7.  AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT BASICALLY ALONG THE SAME HEADING.  WHILE THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE...ALL
OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY MOTION INLAND...WHICH SEEMS
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED.  DUE TO
THE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET IS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE...IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR TIMING OF LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 20.6N  96.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 21.1N  97.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 21.7N  98.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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