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Tropical Storm BRET


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005
 
ON THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH BRET NEAR 00Z...THE AIRCRAFT CREW
REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 1005 MB...THAT THE SEA
STATE LOOKED LESS DISTURBED THAN IT HAD BEEN...AND THAT THE RADAR
PRESENTATION HAD DETERIORATED. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT TREND HAS STALLED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE CDO
FEATURE HAVE ALSO WARMED OVERALL THIS EVENING BUT ARE BEGINNING TO
COOL AGAIN NOW.  THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.
WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH ARE VERY WARM.
BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE
CAUTION...HOWEVER...IS THAT BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND SUCH SYSTEMS CAN SPIN UP...OR DOWN...VERY QUICKLY.

THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT
OVER THE LONGER TERM THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/4.  THIS IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT BRET MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE
TIME OVER WATER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
TEXAS SHOULD KEEP BRET ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK UNTIL IT
MAKES LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER IN
FORECASTING BRET TO STALL OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE 850 MB EVOLUTION IN THE LATEST GFS RUN.  BECAUSE OF
THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COASTLINE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR
TIMING OF LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 20.0N  95.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.3N  96.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.9N  97.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  98.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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