Tropical Weather Summary


000
ABNT30 KNHC 011333
TWSAT 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EST MON NOV 1 2004
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...SUMMARY OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR OCTOBER 2004...

NOTE...SOME OF THE ESTIMATES OF WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT
ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...PENDING A POST-ANALYSIS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DATA.
 
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AND SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE...FORMED DURING
OCTOBER.  ALSO...HURRICANE LISA...WHICH DEVELOPED IN SEPTEMBER...
REMAINED OVER THE OPEN NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING OCTOBER.

ON 1 OCTOBER...LISA WAS MOVING NORTHWARD AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN AZORES
ISLANDS. LATER THAT DAY...LISA TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRENGTHENED. THE CYCLONE BRIEFLY
REACHED MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY EARLY ON 2 OCTOBER BEFORE
WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY
COLD WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. LISA BECAME
EXTRATROPICAL EARLY ON 3 OCTOBER ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE NORTHERN AZORES ISLANDS...AND WAS ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHORTLY THEREAFTER. 

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
INTERACTED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE FORMING INTO A DEPRESSION ON 8
OCTOBER ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.  THE
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY...AND 
THERE WERE ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH THEREAFTER. 
INITIALLY THE CYCLONE MOVED EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD..BUT THEN
GRADUALLY TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH...STEERED BY A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS.  MATTHEW CROSSED THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR COCODRIE EARLY ON 10 OCTOBER AND
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AFTER MOVING INLAND.
MATTHEW THEN TURNED NORTHWARD AND CROSSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
ON 11 OCTOBER.  CONSIDERABLE INLAND FRESHWATER FLOODING OCCURRED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
EXCEEDED 10 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS.  ALTHOUGH MATTHEW WAS ONLY A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...ITS BROAD CIRCULATION STILL PUSHED UP TO 3
FEET OF STORM SURGE INTO PORTIONS OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
SURROUNDING AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

NICOLE WAS A SHORT-LIVED SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPED FROM AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.  THE LOW
MEANDERED NEAR BERMUDA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE ACQUIRING
ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE DECLARED A SUBTROPICAL STORM
EARLY ON 10 OCTOBER ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY OCCURRED AS NICOLE MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA
LATE ON 10 OCTOBER.  BY EARLY ON 11 OCTOBER...NICOLE CAME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD. THE SUBTROPICAL STORM WAS ABSORBED
LATER THAT DAY BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHILE LOCATED ABOUT
345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

SUMMARY TABLE - OCTOBER 2004 (PRELIMINARY STATISTICS)

NAME           DATES         MAX WIND  DEATHS   U.S. DAMAGE
                               (MPH)            ($MILLIONS)
-------------------------------------------------------------
H  LISA    19 SEP - 3 OCT       75                 
TS MATTHEW       8-10 OCT       45                  N/A
STS NICOLE      10-11 OCT       50
-------------------------------------------------------------
N/A = NOT AVAILABLE

FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/BEVEN/AVILA/PASCH
 
$$