Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
0300Z THU SEP 16 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING SAN CARLOS...TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 109.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 109.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.5N 112.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 25.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 27.8N 115.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 115.3W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 109.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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