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Hurricane JAVIER (Text)

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
0900Z WED SEP 15 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  936 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 108.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
 
 
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