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Hurricane JAVIER


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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
1500Z MON SEP 13 2004
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 106.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 107.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 105.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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