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Tropical Storm JAVIER (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
2100Z SAT SEP 11 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  99.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  99.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  99.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.4N 100.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.9N 102.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.7N 103.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N  99.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
 
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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 20:34:16 UTC