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Tropical Storm CELIA


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TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042004
0300Z TUE JUL 20 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 65NE  65SE  65SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.4N 117.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.9N 119.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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