ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032004 2100Z MON JUL 12 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.7N 111.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.2N 113.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N 122.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 25.0N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Jul-2004 20:32:18 UTC