Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
2100Z MON SEP 20 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  47.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 250SE 225SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  47.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  46.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N  48.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N  49.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.1N  50.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.0N  49.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.0N  45.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.0N  43.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 49.0N  44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  47.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
 
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