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Hurricane KARL (Text)


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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
0300Z MON SEP 20 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  45.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 225SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  45.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  44.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.9N  46.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N  48.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N  49.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N  50.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.9N  49.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  45.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 02:42:34 UTC