| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane KARL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
0900Z SUN SEP 19 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  42.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  42.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  41.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N  43.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.7N  45.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N  47.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N  48.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N  49.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 29.5N  47.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 37.5N  42.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  42.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
$$
NNNN