Tropical Storm KARL

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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
1500Z FRI SEP 17 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  35.5W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  35.5W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  35.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N  37.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N  38.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.6N  40.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N  41.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N  44.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N  45.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N  45.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  35.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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