Hurricane JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
1500Z SAT SEP 18 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  73.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  73.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  72.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N  73.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 29.1N  73.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  73.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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