Hurricane IVAN
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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z WED SEP 08 2004
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU
PRINCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 66.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 35SW 100NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE 50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 66.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 65.5W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W NEARING JAMAICA
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.5N 82.0W OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 66.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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