Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0300Z WED SEP 08 2004
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...
THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
 
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAVE
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  63.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  75SE  35SW 100NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE  50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  63.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  62.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.8N  65.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  35SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  50SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.8N  68.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  20SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  45SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.9N  71.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.3N  74.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N  63.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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