Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0300Z TUE SEP 07 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  57.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  20SE  20SW  90NW.
34 KT.......140NE  50SE  50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  57.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  56.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.8N  59.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
50 KT... 75NE  20SE  20SW  90NW.
34 KT...140NE  50SE  50SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.7N  62.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
34 KT...140NE  60SE  60SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.7N  66.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...140NE  75SE  75SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N  69.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N  74.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N  78.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.5N  82.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N  57.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON
 
 
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