Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
1500Z MON SEP 06 2004

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  53.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  53.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  52.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 11.8N  56.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.7N  59.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.7N  62.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N  78.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N  53.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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