ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 0900Z MON SEP 06 2004 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND ST. LUCIA AND A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE THE ISLAND OF MARTINIQUE LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 51.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 51.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.6N 54.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.3N 57.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.2N 60.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 65SE 65SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.3N 63.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.8N 69.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 51.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 09:02:24 UTC