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Hurricane IVAN


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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0300Z MON SEP 06 2004
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  49.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  49.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N  48.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.4N  52.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.2N  55.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.0N  58.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.8N  61.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N  67.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.7N  71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N  49.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
 
 
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