Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
2100Z SUN SEP 05 2004
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BARBADOS.  INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  47.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  47.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N  46.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.0N  50.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.9N  54.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.8N  57.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.6N  61.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.5N  71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N  76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N  47.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
  
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