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Hurricane FRANCES

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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
1500Z MON SEP 06 2004
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND
AND FROM WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO DESTIN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO
INDIAN PASS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO
ANNA MARIA ISLAND AND FROM INDIAN PASS TO DESTIN.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ANNA
MARIA ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  84.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  84.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  83.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N  84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  75SE  75SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.0N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 33.5N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...INLAND
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...INLAND
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N  84.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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