Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
1500Z THU SEP 02 2004
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...AST THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  73.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT.......120NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 160SE 160SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  73.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  73.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.3N  75.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N  77.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.4N  78.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N  79.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  73.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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