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Hurricane FRANCES (Text)


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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
0900Z THU SEP 02 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO CRAIG KEY.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM CRAIG KEY NORTHWARD
TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF CRAIG KEY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  73.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  936 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT.......120NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 160SE 160SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  73.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  72.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.6N  74.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.6N  76.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.6N  78.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.6N  79.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 30.5N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  73.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Sep-2004 09:02:21 UTC