Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
0300Z THU SEP 02 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  72.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT.......120NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 160SE 160SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  72.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  71.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N  73.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N  75.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.8N  77.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.6N  78.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 33.5N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  72.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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