Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
2100Z TUE AUG 31 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 170SE 170SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  65.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.1N  68.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.7N  73.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.6N  78.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  65.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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