Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
0300Z TUE AUG 31 2004
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  61.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 170SE 170SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  61.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  60.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.1N  63.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.9N  66.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.8N  69.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N  71.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N  75.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  61.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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