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Tropical Storm EARL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052004
0900Z SUN AUG 15 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA.  INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  59.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  59.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  58.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.7N  62.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.9N  66.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N  70.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N  74.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N  80.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N  59.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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