ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 29-KT WESTERLY WIND REPORT AT 26/00Z FROM SHIP ZCDF8 LOCATED ABOUT 95 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER IN A NON-CONVECTIVE REGION. WHILE IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT HIGHER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...THE DEPRESSION IS NOT BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH MAZATLAN REPORTING 1005.6 MB AT 25/2343Z. ALSO... 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP NJBZ. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/16. TD-16E IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 6H...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE GETS PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION...AND WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES...FORECAST POINTS AT 24 AND 36 HOURS WERE INCLUDED TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SINCE SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LITTLE TIME REMAINS FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE GUASAVE RADAR INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 90 NMI EAST OF LA PAZ MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IF THE TWO BECOME SUPERIMPOSED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOP THAT COULD POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.6N 108.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 27.1N 106.9W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/0000Z 30.4N 104.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 27/1200Z 34.1N 100.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Oct-2004 02:26:49 UTC