Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM
GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS STRONGLY
SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON
A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...AND A 29-KT WESTERLY WIND REPORT AT 26/00Z FROM SHIP
ZCDF8 LOCATED ABOUT 95 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER IN A NON-CONVECTIVE
REGION. WHILE IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT HIGHER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...THE DEPRESSION IS NOT BEING
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
RATHER LOW WITH MAZATLAN REPORTING 1005.6 MB AT 25/2343Z. ALSO...
12-FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP NJBZ.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/16. TD-16E IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 6H...AND THEN
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE GETS PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION...AND WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
CURRENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES...FORECAST POINTS AT 24 AND 36 HOURS
WERE INCLUDED TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
SINCE SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND INTO TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
 
LITTLE TIME REMAINS FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE
GUASAVE RADAR INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT
90 NMI EAST OF LA PAZ MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IF THE TWO BECOME SUPERIMPOSED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOP THAT COULD POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.6N 108.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 27.1N 106.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 30.4N 104.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 34.1N 100.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
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