ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED OCT 13 2004 THE BIG QUESTION CONCERNING LESTER THIS MORNING IS...WHERE IS THE CENTER? RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT CITY...AND LESTER SHOULD NOW BE LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. HOWEVER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO IMPLY THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATION. THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE BECAUSE OF TOPGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR DO NOT DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE ALSO AMBIGUOUS...SINCE THEY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LESTER IS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CENTER POSITION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT LESTER IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE STEERING PATTERN...A ZONALLY-ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD DEVELOP SOON. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED... THE WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT...AND THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...LESTER MAY HAVE BECOME SO DISRUPTED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND THAT IT WILL NOT SURVIVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LESTER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 16.8N 100.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 16.9N 101.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 17.0N 101.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Oct-2004 14:35:30 UTC