ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004 LESTER REMAINS A VERY SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM BASED ON SURFACE AND RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND A 12/2248Z TRMM OVERPASS. ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0...OR 45 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...BUT IS KEPT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND A HIGHEST REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF ONLY 21 KT AT ACAPULCO AT 12/2145Z. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/05. LESTER HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 22N LATITUDE...BASED ON 13/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE REMAINING INTACT AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN TWO DEEP MID-LEVEL LOWS...ONE WEST OF BAJA AND ONE OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS LIES IN THE LOCATION AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE FARTHEST NORTH... WHICH RESULTS IN LESTER REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST... WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE GFS MODEL WHICH QUICKLY DISSIPATES LESTER. SINCE LESTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST... WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE UNLIKELY. ALSO...A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 140 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...COMBINED WITH LAND INTERACTION TO THE NORTH...MAY SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE INFLOW. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE 00Z SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.5N 99.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 100.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 17.0N 101.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.0N 102.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 105.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 107.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 18.5N 109.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Oct-2004 02:25:30 UTC