Tropical Storm LESTER

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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004
 
THE CYCLONE HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION TO YIELD
A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUATING TO A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED ON THIS BASIS. 
CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER
WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...THE STORM WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.

BASED ON AN EARLIER TRMM PASS...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  MOTION IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6...AND ONLY A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE.  THE MORE NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN.  PERHAPS THERE IS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LESTER.  IN ANY EVENT...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 16.3N  99.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 100.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.9N 101.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N 102.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 108.5W    65 KT
 
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