ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004 FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES DO NOT INDICATE MUCH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FURTHER WEST. THIS IMPLIES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...AND THE FACT THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN THUS FAR...WE HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. EVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES...THE CENTER POSITION IS UNCERTAIN. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6. RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS OVER MEXICO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINS THIS REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK MODEL FORECAST SUITE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...BUT THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 15.6N 98.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 99.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 16.3N 100.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.7N 101.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.2N 104.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Oct-2004 14:56:46 UTC