ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DISPLAYS FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E CURRENTLY COVERS ONLY A SMALL AREA NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 0438Z AMSU OVERPASS...WHICH SHOWED THE CENTER EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS LESS THAN 6 HR AGO...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO 17N100W...WHILE A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 15N FROM 105W-130W. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD...WHILE A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD...PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR AND THEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH CALL FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CLOSE TO THE COAST...AS DOES THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO 00Z NOGAPS RUN AVAILABLE...AND ITS 18Z RUN CALLED FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITHOUT SEEING THE NEW NOGAPS...THERE IS A RELUCTANCE TO SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT. THUS...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS AND UKMET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE GFS AND UKMET VERIFY...THE CENTER WOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY...AND TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONSHORE. THE CYCLONE IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS NOT YET DEVELOPING ITS OWN OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM FROM 24-72 HR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR AND FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR WILL INCREASE AFTER 72 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. AS NOTED EARLIER... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E IS A SMALL CYCLONE AND COULD SHOW RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH BOTH UP AND DOWN. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 15.0N 98.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 15.2N 98.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.5N 100.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.6N 101.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 15.8N 102.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Oct-2004 08:36:38 UTC