Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004
 
A 11/2345Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY SHOWED THAT TD-15E HAS MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION. IT ALSO INDICATED A SMALL
BUT TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED ABOUT HALF WAY
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE T2.5...OR 35
KT...INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB. HOWEVER...I AM HOLDING THE
INTENSITY AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION ...
ALBEIT QUITE COLD AT -80C AND COLDER...HAS ONLY PERSISTED FOR 
FOR THE PAST 4 HOURS OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE SPECIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP SINCE THE MODELS AT 12Z AND
18Z EITHER INITIALIZED THE CENTER TO FAR EAST LIKE NOGAPS...OR
BARELY INITIALIZED IT AT ALL LIKE THE UKMET AND CANDIAN MODELS. THE
GFS DID INITIALIZE THE VORTEX PROPERLY...BUT IT QUICKLY WEAKENS IT
AND ALLOWS IT TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT
TYPICALLY LIES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS
HEAVILY TOWARD THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN
MODELS...AND THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL BUT TIGHT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AS
NOTED IN EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE
OVERPASS. AS SUCH...IT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH. THE CURRENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY HAVE VERTICALLY
STRETCHED THE VORTEX ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM WINDS NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION PRECLUDES NAMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS
MODEL KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER 29C-30C SSTS AND UNDER LESS THAN 10 KT
OF SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS IN
ORDER. IF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR EAST OF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT GET DRAWN
INTO THE SYSTEM...THEN MORE INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AFTER 36HR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.9N  97.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N  98.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N  99.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 15.2N 100.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N 102.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N 105.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 110.0W    70 KT
 
 
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