ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HENCE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IS IMPARTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BEEN QUITE WEAK OVER THE AREA...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST SINCE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IF A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPS...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.4N 96.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.4N 97.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 14.3N 97.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 14.2N 98.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 14.2N 99.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 14.5N 103.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 106.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Oct-2004 20:36:48 UTC