ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004 THE DEPRESSION HAS AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH CONVECTION ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS PATTERN IS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. DESPITE THE SHEAR... EARLIER CIMSS/CIRA AMSU ANALYSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THOUGH THERE IS NO SUPPORT IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ANY AGENCY. THE DEPRESSION IS KEPT AT 30 KT WITH ALL INDICATIONS TOWARD IT BECOMING A STORM OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... 280/13. GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH THE UKMET/NOGAPS POORLY INITIALIZING THE CENTER AND THE GFS/GFDL HAVING MUCH TOO SLOW OF AN INITIAL MOTION. HOWEVER A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEEPING IT MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. IF THIS DISTURBANCE WERE TO DEVELOP IT COULD INDUCE A MOTION A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW THE TRACK FORECAST WILL STAY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FAST BAMS SUITE AND THE MUCH SLOWER GFDL/GFS MODELS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. SHIPS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND OVERALL UNCERTAINTY...ONLY A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.1N 113.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 14.3N 115.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.5N 118.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.5N 120.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Oct-2004 02:26:30 UTC