ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT JAVIER IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS...BUT IT IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/7. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING SINCE JAVIER HAS BASICALLY REMAINED ON TRACK. JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL HIGH. BY 24-36 HOURS... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ACT TO TURN JAVIER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ ...AND INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER WATER. JAVIER MAY NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES WEST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 23.3N 113.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 24.5N 113.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 26.8N 113.6W 40 KT...INLAND WESTERN BAJA 36HR VT 19/1800Z 29.3N 113.0W 30 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ 48HR VT 20/0600Z 33.6N 112.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 09:05:00 UTC