ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF JAVIER IS NO LONGER VISIBLE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0954Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF JAVIER IS SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES. ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL- ESTABLISHED...CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DECREASING AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. JAVIER CONTINUES AT ABOUT 325/7 AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTH- NORTHWEST MOTION SOON THEN MORE TO THE NORTH BEYOND 24 HOURS... BRINGING THE HURRICANE CLOSE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE LEFT-MOST SOLUTION KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE THRU 48 HOURS WHILE THE UKMET MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH JAVIER ONSHORE IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE CENTER NEARING THE MEXICAN COASTLINE IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 36 HOURS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONU. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INITIAL POSITION...WE ARE HOLDING OFF RECOMMENDING WATCHES FOR MEXICO UNTIL A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL POSITION IS OBTAINED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH JAVIER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM EARLY TOMORROW. A COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE UNTIL LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS IN THE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 21.8N 112.3W 95 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 22.8N 113.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 26.4N 114.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 29.5N 114.0W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 20/1200Z 38.0N 112.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 14:44:58 UTC