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Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
THE LAST VISIBLE ANIMATIONS FOR TODAY SHOWED A VERY CLEAR AND
DISTINCT EYE. THE WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE NORTH
AND SOUTH QUADRANTS ARE STILL PRESENT. ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT..DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED
TO 100 KTS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE JAVIER TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TERM WOBBLE
TO THE RIGHT AND THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THIS BRINGS THE FORECAST TRACK A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE BAJA PENISULA...BUT STILL PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME...A BUILDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AROUND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD...A REDUCTION
IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BEYOND
DAY 3...JAVIER SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ULTIMATELY...WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST... AND IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 20.9N 111.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 21.7N 111.8W   100 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 22.8N 112.8W    95 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.8N 113.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 25.3N 114.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 31.6N 113.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     22/0000Z 34.1N 111.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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