ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. JAVIER IS EXPECTED MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 96 HOURS......A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS JAVIER MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND COOLER STABLE AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM WEST. AFTER 72 HOURS...JAVIER WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 19.2N 109.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W 100 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 21.1N 110.8W 95 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 22.3N 111.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 23.5N 112.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 25.9N 114.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 115.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 29.2N 115.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 03:14:38 UTC