ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JAVIER HAS DEGRADED SOME TONIGHT AND T NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB HAVE FALLEN ACCORDINGLY. THE SMALL EYE PRESENT EARLIER HAS FILLED...WITH EVIDENCE IN MICROWAVE DATA THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE HAS BEGUN. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED... CAUSING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOTION... NW AT ABOUT 7 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH TIME AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER NW MEXICO. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE HIGH STRONG ENOUGH OVER MEXICO TO PREVENT A NORTHWARD TURN. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TO WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF JAVIER FOR THOSE IN THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... BETWEEN THE GFDL AND CONU. THE UKMET MODEL IS THE ONLY RELIABLE MODEL WHICH HAS THE HURRICANE AFFECTING BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP JAVIER FROM RE-INTENSIFYING. THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND THE CURRENT WEAKENING MIGHT BE TEMPORARY AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL CYCLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING TREND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AS EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR BUT JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FORECASTER BLAKE/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.6N 107.4W 120 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 108.0W 125 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.0N 108.6W 135 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 18.7N 109.3W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W 125 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 116.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 08:34:36 UTC