ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004 JAVIER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AS INDICATED BY THE APPEARANCE OF A CLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 90...102...AND 115 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 1330Z ODT FROM UW/CIMSS GIVES ABOUT 95 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE ESTIMATES AND IS INCREASED TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JAVIER IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE. THIS SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS JAVIER WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE WEAKENING...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES SO AFTER 12 HOURS OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO I AM RELUCTANT TO FOLLOW THE WEAKENING TRENDS CALLED FOR BY THIS GUIDANCE. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A ROUGHLY STEADY STATE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS A WEAK STEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES LIFTS OUT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALTHOUGH AN IMPACT THERE CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN OPTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE JAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO. AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH MAINTAINS THE 500 MB HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AND CONSEQUENTLY TAKES JAVIER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 15.0N 105.7W 105 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.8N 106.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 107.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 17.3N 108.3W 115 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 113.5W 90 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 13-Sep-2004 14:34:46 UTC