ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JAVIER HAS FORMED AN INTERMITTENT POORLY-DEFINED EYE IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH AN OUTER BAND LOOSELY WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO JAVIER IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. THE CIRRUS OUTLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR-FAIR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/10. JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BEFORE 96 HR...AND ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST. JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST 72 HR. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT TIME ASSUMING IT STAYS OFFSHORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KT BY 48 HR IN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL. NEITHER MODEL STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM AFTER 48-60 HR...ALTHOUGH THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT READILY APPARENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT JAVIER WILL GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AFTER 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.4N 103.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.9N 105.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 106.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 106.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 109.0W 100 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 20:44:34 UTC