ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE BANDING FEATURE THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTH INTO THE CDO FEATURE OF JAVIER. THE CDO HAS VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -80 DEGREES C OR COLDER. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE SYSTEM NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWING DOWN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. JAVIER IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK NOW FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY CURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWS IT DOWN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS INTO SINGLE DIGIT VALUES AND REMAIN THAT WAY OUT TO ABOUT 66 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS JUST AFTER RECURVATURE IS COMPLETED. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 12.3N 102.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 12.7N 103.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 13.7N 104.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 14.7N 105.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 106.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.7N 106.6W 90 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 19.7N 107.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 21.1N 107.7W 90 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 08:54:54 UTC