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Tropical Storm JAVIER

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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
 
INFRARED AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED A PERSISTENT SMALL CDO
LIKE FEATURE WITH SOME BANDING PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM AFWA. 
THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JAVIER BASED WITH A
CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON THESE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.   
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOWER 285/9....BASICALLY ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY
IS THAT ALL THE TRACK MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...AGREE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AT VARYING SPEEDS
AND THEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE LEFT
OF THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
LEANS CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWARD TURN PRESENTED BY THE
CONSENSUS.  
 
WIND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS CURRENTLY
INDICATE 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JAVIER. THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. 
THIS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C...STEADY INTENSIFICATION 
IS FORECAST WITH JAVIER REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND
LEVELLING OFF AT 75 KNOTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
THE INTENSIFICATION...BRINGING JAVIER TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24
HOURS AND TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 54-60 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER COBB/AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 12.0N  98.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.3N  99.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 12.6N 101.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 13.1N 102.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 13.8N 103.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N 104.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W    75 KT
 
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