ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004 CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER A BANDING FEATURE HAS PERSISTED IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMMS INDICATE 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THIRTEEN-E. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THE DIFFERENCES IN INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE VARIOUS MODELS HAS ONCE AGAIN LED TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST NOGAPS HAS A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS THE LONE OUTLIER IMMEDIATELY TURNS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR 24 HOURS THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER GUATEMALA AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. THE GFS...GFDL...LBAR...CONU CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE BAMS MOVE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS AT VARYING SPEEDS THEN TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THIRTEEN-E WILL RETROGRADE AFTER 48 HOURS AND ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO AND THEREBY INDUCING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION INITIALLY. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBLE TURN TO THE NORTH BEING OFFERED BY MORE MEMBERS OF THE MODEL SUITE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL SHEAR DECREASING WITH TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS AND A LEVELLING OF THE INTENSITY TO 75 KNOTS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FORECASTS AN INTENSITY OF 90-95 KT BY 48 HOURS. FORECASTER COBB/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 11.5N 95.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 11.8N 97.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 12.4N 99.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 12.8N 100.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 13.0N 101.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 14.0N 104.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 105.0W 75 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 02:45:49 UTC